Insurrectionist Accountability: Texting Voters about Candidate Participation in the January 6 Insurrection
This study tested the effect of receiving a text message about their local state house or senate candidate’s participation in the January 6, 2021 insurrection on constituents’ likelihood of voting in the November 2022 general election.
How Much Handwriting Matters? Measuring Downstream Effects of Postcards to Voters
This investigation measured the downstream (general election) effects of sending completely handwritten or partially handwritten postcards with pro-choice messaging to likely pro-choice voters in Arizona ahead of the 2022 primary.
Values-Matched Messaging Replication: Holding Anti-Abortion Legislators to Account
Abstract: This study tested the effect on turnout of receiving a handwritten postcard highlighting the policy votes that a voter’s state legislative representative cast in opposition to the modeled policy position of the voter. The study design was a randomized controlled trial, with a postcard condition in which voters received a handwritten postcard with issue-specific […]
Rings of Three, Leave it Be: Testing the Three Rings Approach to Phonebanking
This study tested the trade-offs between contact rate and the number of conversations with two methods of phonebank calling: letting the phone ring through to voicemail or hanging up the phone if it hasn’t been answered in 3 rings.
New voters of color: Do welcome messages emphasizing voter identity increase turnout?
This study tested the efficacy of handwritten postcards that welcomed newly registered 18- and 19-year-old voters of color and gave them information about the upcoming election for increasing voter turnout.
Postcards to voters: How much handwriting matters?
This investigation measured the efficacy of completely handwritten and partially handwritten pro-choice postcards sent to modeled pro-choice Arizona voters ahead of the 2022 primary.
Surge and decline: How does the president in power affect state legislatures?
This analysis explores ‘surge and decline’, at the state legislative level. Surge and decline is a phenomenon where members of the president’s party tend to win seats in congress in the year the president is elected, but tend to lose seats in midterm congressional years.
Downballot roll-off: Lopsided roll-off among major parties may be linked to downballot losses
Downballot roll-off is a phenomenon where people vote for top-of-ticket candidates but then do not vote for downballot offices like state legislature.
Volunteer Voter Contact, Even from Afar, Helps Democrats Win
On August 1st, the New York Times published an opinion piece suggesting that progressive grassroots organizations that popped up post-2016 aren’t materially different from digital fundraising efforts used by large scale, top-down national groups and campaigns. The piece then argues that when those organizations offer volunteering opportunities, they are generally not a good use of […]
Votes to majority: State Legislative Chambers Often Decided by Narrow Margins
This analysis looks at a number of battleground state legislative chambers to determine how many votes Democrats would have needed in 2020 to gain a legislative majority in the districts that decided the majority.
